BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
10-11 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
12-10 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Erik Sabrowski
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | None-None | 4.08 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Erik Sabrowski | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.08
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
GUARDIANS
100%
ORIOLES
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Baltimore
2
BALTIMORE
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Cleveland
CLE
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.711
▲
OPS
.696
199
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Baltimore: 39.6%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.0
4
CLE Score
4.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.4 / 5.9
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 8.5
12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 11.0
15.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BAL
CLE
BAL
ML
54%
87-75
53%
83-73
49%
80-83
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
93-69
61%
95-60-1
58%
95-68
57%
90-68-1
TTL
56%
89-71-2
54%
81-70-5
44%
70-90-2
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox