TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
12-8 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-9 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Wilber Dotel
#66 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 8.44 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Wilber Dotel | None-None | 9.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
8.44 Ldr
ERA
9.00
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
PIRATES
0%
RAYS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TB @ PIT
3 - 6
Apr 18, 2026
TB @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 17, 2026
TB @ PIT
1 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
PIT @ TB
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.728
OPS
▲
.734
169
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+112.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+54.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+10.1% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.2% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
3
PIT Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 10.3
12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.2
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 14.4
21.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.4 / 5.8
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TB
PIT
TB
ML
52%
82-77
58%
95-68
52%
85-78
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-66
50%
81-82
55%
90-73
TTL
47%
72-81-6
47%
73-81-9
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-75-10
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
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Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox