TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
46-36 | Road
105
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
52-30 | Home
115
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
RAPTORS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-7 points
21.6%
TOR By 8-14 points
10.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
27.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
117
TORONTO
Cleveland
120
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Toronto
102
TORONTO
Cleveland
108
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o222.0
Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim
u222.0
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
102 - 114
May 1, 2026
CLE @ TOR
110 - 112
Apr 29, 2026
TOR @ CLE
120 - 125
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
89 - 93
Apr 23, 2026
CLE @ TOR
104 - 126
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+23.1% more
Cleveland: 8.3
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Rebounding (L5)
+17.6% more
Cleveland: 42.3
vs
Toronto: 36.0
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
Cleveland: 16.5
vs
Toronto: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Cleveland: 79.8%
vs
Toronto: 72.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
117.0
105
CLE Score
120.0
115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 43.9
32.0 / 27.0
Assists
26.8 / 30.1
22.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.3
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.6 / 53.8
53.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 72.9
64.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
42.3 / 36.0
35.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.3 / 6.7
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 14.1
14.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
60%
69-46
55%
57-47
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
ATS
67%
75-37-3
61%
62-40-2
56%
55-44
55%
48-39
TTL
59%
68-47
60%
62-42
100%
99-0
100%
87-0
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