Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Cubs NYM @ CHC

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-13  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Apr 18 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

10-9  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Marcus Semien
STARTING PITCHER

Marcus Semien

#10 | Second Base
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Marcus Semien None-None -- -- -- --
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.57
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
METS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Chicago)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

22.7%

Cubs Cover

77.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYM By 1-2 runs

10.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

5.4%

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.4%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +157.0% more
Chicago: 1.9 vs New York: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +91.6% more
Chicago: 20.8 vs New York: 10.9
Hits (L5) +62.5% more
Chicago: 13.0 vs New York: 8.0
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 2.0 2
CHC Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 13.0 / 8.0 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 8.1 7.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 20.8 / 10.9 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.5 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58% 93-68
50% 79-80
51% 82-79
48% 76-83
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-66
47% 75-85-1
49% 78-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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