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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

45-37  |  Road

84
FINAL
Sun, Apr 19 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

64-18  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
SUNS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
217.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
SunsPHX (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Suns Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

PHX By 1-7 points

21.6%

PHX By 8-14 points

10.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
107
PHOENIX
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
115
PHOENIX
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o216.0 Loss
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Sim u216.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 27, 2026 OKC @ PHX 131 - 122
Apr 25, 2026 OKC @ PHX 121 - 109
Apr 22, 2026 PHX @ OKC 107 - 120
Apr 19, 2026 PHX @ OKC 84 - 119
Apr 12, 2026 PHX @ OKC 135 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +33.5% more
Oklahoma City: 29.5 vs Phoenix: 22.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Oklahoma City: 39.1% vs Phoenix: 36.3%
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
Phoenix: 15.0 vs Oklahoma City: 12.1
Free Throw % (L5) +14.6%
Phoenix: 78.9% vs Oklahoma City: 64.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHX Score 107.0 84
OKC Score 110.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.1 / 36.3 30.0 / 33.0
Assists 29.5 / 22.1 28.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.2 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 47.5 45.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 78.9 91.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 42.4 / 41.2 54.0 / 45.0
Steals 10.1 / 10.4 13.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 15.0 8.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
PHX
OKC
PHX
ML
70% 80-34
57% 60-45
48% 46-49
51% 45-43
ATS
73% 83-30-1
58% 59-43-3
48% 46-49
51% 45-43
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 61-42-2
100% 95-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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