ORLANDO
MAGICORL
45-37 | Road
112
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
60-22 | Home
101
AI Model Win Probability
MAGIC
0%
PISTONS
100%
MAGIC
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
ORL By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORL By 8-14 points
16.9%
DET By 1-7 points
24.3%
DET By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Orlando
118
ORLANDO
Detroit
117
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Orlando
100
ORLANDO
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Magic
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o221.0
Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u221.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
ORL @ DET
94 - 116
May 1, 2026
DET @ ORL
93 - 79
Apr 29, 2026
ORL @ DET
109 - 116
Apr 27, 2026
DET @ ORL
88 - 94
Apr 25, 2026
DET @ ORL
105 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+62.1% more
Detroit: 11.2
vs
Orlando: 6.9
Assists (L5)
+29.2% more
Detroit: 33.1
vs
Orlando: 25.6
Blocks (L5)
+20.4% more
Detroit: 7.1
vs
Orlando: 5.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.2%
Detroit: 40.9%
vs
Orlando: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ORL Score
118.0
112
DET Score
117.0
101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.9 / 30.7
31.0 / 29.0
Assists
33.1 / 25.6
19.0 / 26.0
Blocks
7.1 / 5.9
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
53.2 / 46.7
40.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 76.9
76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 46.2
39.0 / 45.0
Steals
11.2 / 6.9
9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
16.2 / 15.5
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORL
49-42-0
(53.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORL
43-48-0
(47.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-: -1.2
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ORL
DET
ORL
ML
55%
64-53
61%
65-42
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
64%
68-38-1
49%
47-49
56%
51-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
57%
61-46
100%
96-0
100%
91-0
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