Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Angels SD @ LAA

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

13-7  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Apr 18 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

11-10  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Vaughn Grissom
STARTING PITCHER

Vaughn Grissom

#5 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Miller None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Vaughn Grissom None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
2 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
100%
📊
ANGELS
0%
PADRES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Angels Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 SD @ LAA 2 - 1
Apr 18, 2026 SD @ LAA 4 - 1
Apr 17, 2026 SD @ LAA 0 - 8
May 14, 2025 LAA @ SD 1 - 5
May 13, 2025 LAA @ SD 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.925 ▲
OPS
.679
4
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +3750.0% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +197.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.5 vs San Diego: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +71.0% more
Los Angeles: 19.4 vs San Diego: 11.4
Hits (L5) +37.5% more
Los Angeles: 10.4 vs San Diego: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.0 4
LAA Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.4 / 7.6 6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 10.2 10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 19.4 / 11.4 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.3 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
SD
LAA
SD
ML
59% 96-66
51% 85-83
55% 89-73
51% 85-82
ATS
60% 97-65
54% 91-77
51% 82-80
55% 92-75
TTL
53% 83-74-5
51% 82-80-6
52% 82-75-5
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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