ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
11-8 | Road
7
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
8-13 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Blubaugh
#69 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| AJ Blubaugh | None-None | 7.07 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
7.07
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
ASTROS
0%
CARDINALS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
STL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
STL @ HOU
7 - 5
Apr 18, 2026
STL @ HOU
7 - 5
Apr 17, 2026
STL @ HOU
9 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
HOU @ STL
1 - 4
Apr 15, 2025
HOU @ STL
2 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.691
▲
OPS
.582
167
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+81.8% more
Houston: 4.9
vs
St. Louis: 2.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.7% more
Houston: 8.7
vs
St. Louis: 7.7
Home Runs (Season)
+97.6% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.4% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.0
7
HOU Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.2 / 8.8
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.5
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.7
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 14.7
11.0 / 19.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.7
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
STL
HOU
STL
ML
50%
81-82
53%
85-74
47%
77-87
52%
84-77
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
89-70
55%
90-74
53%
85-76
TTL
45%
70-84-9
46%
68-81-10
45%
69-86-9
50%
76-75-10
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