TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
11-8 | Road
8
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-8 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 7.04 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 2.30 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.04
ERA
Ldr 2.30
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
PIRATES
100%
RAYS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 19, 2026
TB @ PIT
3 - 6
Apr 18, 2026
TB @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 17, 2026
TB @ PIT
1 - 5
Apr 2, 2025
PIT @ TB
4 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
PIT @ TB
0 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.728
OPS
▲
.734
169
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+33.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Pittsburgh: 25.3%
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+37.1% more
Pittsburgh: 16.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
8
PIT Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.6 / 8.0
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.8
12.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 11.7
14.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.7
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
TB
PIT
TB
ML
52%
82-77
58%
95-68
52%
85-78
58%
95-68
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
97-66
50%
81-82
55%
90-73
TTL
47%
72-81-6
47%
73-81-9
50%
79-78-6
51%
78-75-10
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