Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Nationals SF @ WSH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

8-12  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Apr 18 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

9-11  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
@
Cade Cavalli
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Cavalli

#24 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Adrian Houser None-None 5.40 -- 5.2 1
Cade Cavalli None-None 4.12 -- 4.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
5.40 ERA Ldr 4.12
-- WHIP --
5.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
GIANTS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
2
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.706
OPS
▲ .744
178
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +20.9% more
San Francisco: 10.2 vs Washington: 8.0
Home Runs (L5) +20.8% more
San Francisco: 1.3 vs Washington: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +19.7% more
San Francisco: 16.0 vs Washington: 12.9
Strikeouts (L5) +17.4% more
San Francisco: 9.7 vs Washington: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.0 7
WSH Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 10.2 10.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.7 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 16.0 16.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.9 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SF
WSH
SF
ML
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-68
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 82-68-10
42% 65-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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