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BOSTON

BRUINSBOS

45-27-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Apr 19 • 7:30 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

50-23-9  |  Home

4
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
BRUINS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
BruinsBOS (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BOS By 1 goal

12.1%

BOS By 2-3 goals

9.3%

BUF By 1 goal

19.7%

BUF By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
BOSTON
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
BOSTON
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 1, 2026 BUF @ BOS 4 - 1
Apr 28, 2026 BOS @ BUF 2 - 1
Apr 26, 2026 BUF @ BOS 6 - 1
Apr 23, 2026 BUF @ BOS 3 - 1
Apr 21, 2026 BOS @ BUF 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +29.0% more
Buffalo: 20.5 vs Boston: 15.9
Power Play % (L5) +24.9%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Boston: 1.5%
Shots on Goal (L5) +21.1% more
Buffalo: 27.2 vs Boston: 22.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.6% more
Boston: 18.6 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 3.0 3
BUF Score 4.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
34%MONEY66%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
BOS
BUF
BOS
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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