Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Cubs NYM @ CHC

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Apr 17 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

9-9  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea None-None 4.50 -- 4.0 2
Jacob Webb None-None 5.87 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 Ldr ERA 5.87
-- WHIP --
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
METS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

30.9%

Cubs Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
6
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 CHC @ NYM 4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 CHC @ NYM 10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026 CHC @ NYM 9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026 NYM @ CHC 1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026 NYM @ CHC 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.705 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +148.8% more
Chicago: 12.5 vs New York: 5.0
Total Bases (L5) +140.4% more
Chicago: 18.8 vs New York: 7.8
Home Runs (L5) +85.0% more
Chicago: 1.3 vs New York: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +8.4% more
Chicago: 9.8 vs New York: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.0 4
CHC Score 6.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 12.5 / 5.0 14.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 9.1 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 7.8 25.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.3 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
NYM
CHC
NYM
ML
58% 93-68
50% 79-80
51% 82-79
48% 76-83
ATS
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-66
47% 75-85-1
49% 78-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
55% 80-66-13
46% 72-83-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 29 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 36 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 15 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 24 minutes ago