Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Nationals SF @ WSH

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

7-12  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Apr 17 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

9-10  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Logan Webb None-None 5.10 -- 6.0 6
Zack Littell None-None 7.11 -- 4.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
5.10 Ldr ERA 7.11
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
NATIONALS
100%
GIANTS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

77.3%

Nationals Cover

22.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

18.4%

SF By 3-4 runs

19.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

10.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

5.4%

AI Model Projected Score
8
SAN FRANCISCO
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 10, 2026 WSH @ SF 10 - 11
Jun 9, 2026 WSH @ SF 6 - 3
Jun 8, 2026 WSH @ SF 4 - 3
Apr 19, 2026 SF @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 18, 2026 SF @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.706
OPS
▲ .744
178
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +15.0% more
San Francisco: 10.0 vs Washington: 8.5
Walks (L5) +11.4% more
San Francisco: 4.4 vs Washington: 3.9
Errors (L5) +28.0% more
Washington: 0.5 vs San Francisco: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +22.8% more
Washington: 5.1 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 8.0 10
WSH Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.7 8.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 0.4 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 10.0 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 10.5 15.0 / 27.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SF
WSH
SF
ML
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
53% 85-75
ATS
58% 93-68
62% 100-60
57% 91-70
52% 83-77
TTL
50% 77-78-6
55% 82-68-10
42% 65-90-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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