ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
12-7 | Road
9
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
8-10 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Shugart
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez | None-None | 2.21 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Chase Shugart | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.21 Ldr
ERA
3.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
100%
PHILLIES
0%
BRAVES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
10.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
5.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+87.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.3
vs
Atlanta: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+11.2% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
Atlanta: 1.3
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
9
PHI Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.6
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.3
0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 9.9
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 17.4
8.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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