TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
10-7 | Road
5
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
6-12 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Sean Newcomb | None-None | 4.38 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.68 Ldr
ERA
4.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
100%
WHITE SOX
0%
RAYS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
CHW @ TB
9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
CHW @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
CHW @ TB
6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026
TB @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026
TB @ CHW
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.728
OPS
▲
.826
169
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+32.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+9.8%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.9%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
Batting Avg (Season)
+6.6%
Chicago: 32.4%
vs
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
5
CHW Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 9.7
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.2
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.5 / 15.7
16.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.8
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TB
CHW
TB
ML
49%
81-86
58%
95-68
56%
94-73
58%
95-68
ATS
59%
99-68
60%
97-66
56%
93-74
55%
90-73
TTL
58%
96-69-2
47%
73-81-9
51%
84-81-2
51%
78-75-10
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