SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
6-12 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
11-7 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Keaton Winn
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Winn | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24
ERA
Ldr 1.93
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
100%
REDS
0%
GIANTS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
SF By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CIN @ SF
10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
CIN @ SF
1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
CIN @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.13
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.306
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.706
▲
OPS
.699
178
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+164.0% more
Cincinnati: 2.2
vs
San Francisco: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+56.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.8
vs
San Francisco: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+19.7% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
San Francisco: 178.0
Total Bases (L5)
+14.4% more
Cincinnati: 14.1
vs
San Francisco: 12.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
5.0
3
CIN Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.6
1.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 9.0
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 12.3
1.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 5.1
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SF
CIN
SF
ML
55%
88-71
49%
79-81
49%
79-81
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
86-73
62%
100-60
50%
80-80
52%
83-77
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
82-68-10
54%
83-72-5
46%
68-81-11
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