Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Padres SEA @ SD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

8-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Apr 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

12-6  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cole Wilcox
STARTING PITCHER

Cole Wilcox

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cole Wilcox None-None 4.91 -- 1.2 3
Mason Miller None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
MARINERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SEATTLE
5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 SD @ SEA 8 - 3
May 16, 2026 SD @ SEA 7 - 4
May 15, 2026 SD @ SEA 2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026 SEA @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 SEA @ SD 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.693
OPS
▲ .925
182 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +118.5% more
San Diego: 4.1 vs Seattle: 1.9
Strikeouts (L5) +60.4% more
San Diego: 10.1 vs Seattle: 6.3
Runs per Game (Season) +46.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Seattle: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +44.0% more
San Diego: 1.3 vs Seattle: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.0 2
SD Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.8 / 8.2 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 6.3 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 12.8 12.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.1 / 1.9 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51% 85-83
50% 81-81
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 98-64
55% 92-75
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
56% 85-67-10
54% 86-74-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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