PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
42-40 | Road
98
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
SPURS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SA -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
POR By 1-7 points
3.3%
POR By 8-14 points
0.6%
SA By 1-7 points
12.2%
SA By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
115
PORTLAND
San Antonio
132
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Portland
112
PORTLAND
San Antonio
118
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Spurs (-12)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o223.0
Loss
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Sim
u223.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 28, 2026
POR @ SA
95 - 114
Apr 26, 2026
SA @ POR
114 - 93
Apr 24, 2026
SA @ POR
120 - 108
Apr 21, 2026
POR @ SA
106 - 103
Apr 19, 2026
POR @ SA
98 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
San Antonio: 29.0
vs
Portland: 26.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.9%
San Antonio: 80.9%
vs
Portland: 76.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
San Antonio: 48.9%
vs
Portland: 45.8%
Steals (L5)
+29.5% more
Portland: 9.4
vs
San Antonio: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
POR Score
115.0
98
SA Score
132.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 35.4
45.0 / 26.0
Assists
29.0 / 26.4
24.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.3 / 6.8
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 45.8
48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
80.9 / 76.0
84.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
46.8 / 44.1
45.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.6 / 9.4
6.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 15.0
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
POR
SA
POR
ML
60%
111-73
53%
56-49
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
62%
65-39-1
58%
61-44
55%
49-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
56%
58-46-1
100%
105-0
100%
89-0
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