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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

9-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

9-8  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Josh Lowe
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Lowe

#3 | Left Field
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Lowe None-None -- -- -- --
David Bednar None-None 4.70 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.70
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
100%
📊
YANKEES
0%
ANGELS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

LAA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u11.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u11.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYY @ LAA 6 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 NYY @ LAA 7 - 3
Aug 31, 2026 NYY @ LAA 1 - 10
Apr 16, 2026 LAA @ NYY 11 - 4
Apr 15, 2026 LAA @ NYY 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.679
OPS
▲ 1.041
154 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +122.8% more
New York: 9.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +22.5%
New York: 59.4% vs Los Angeles: 36.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +14.1%
New York: 37.5% vs Los Angeles: 23.4%
On-Base Pct (Season) +13.7%
New York: 44.7% vs Los Angeles: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 4.0 4
NYY Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 10.2 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.6 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 9.6 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 19.2 11.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.3 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
LAA
NYY
LAA
ML
47% 76-85
59% 96-66
52% 85-77
55% 89-73
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 97-65
53% 86-76
51% 82-80
TTL
53% 81-73-7
53% 83-74-5
53% 82-72-7
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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