WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
8-9 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
10-7 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 6.16 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 0.93 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.16
ERA
Ldr 0.93
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
0%
PIRATES
100%
NATIONALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
16.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
18.4%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
9
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 16.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
PIT @ WSH
11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PIT @ WSH
7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026
PIT @ WSH
5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026
WSH @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026
WSH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.744
▲
OPS
.734
210
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+63.5% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+13.8% more
Washington: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+11.4% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 186.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.7% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
9.0
0
PIT Score
7.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.7 / 9.1
5.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 7.3
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 14.3
5.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.3 / 5.0
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
52%
82-77
57%
92-69
52%
85-78
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
TTL
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
79-78-6
42%
65-90-6
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