Home / NHL Projections NHL / Rangers @ Lightning NYR @ TB

NEW YORK

RANGERSNYR

33-39-9  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

50-25-6  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Dylan Garand
GOALTENDER

Dylan Garand

#33 | Goaltender
@
Brandon Halverson
GOALTENDER

Brandon Halverson

#33 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dylan Garand None-None 2.00 0.935 --
Brandon Halverson None-None 4.23 0.810 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 4.23
0.935 Ldr Save % 0.810
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
RANGERS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RangersNYR (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

NYR By 1 goal

12.1%

NYR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
NEW YORK
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
NEW YORK
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.0 Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 TB @ NYR 1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 NYR @ TB 4 - 2
Nov 29, 2025 TB @ NYR 4 - 1
Nov 12, 2025 NYR @ TB 7 - 3
Apr 17, 2025 TB @ NYR 0 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +51.7% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs New York: 21.9
Hits (L5) +20.9% more
New York: 25.5 vs Tampa Bay: 20.2
Power Play % (L5) +17.0%
New York: 48.5% vs Tampa Bay: 31.5%
Faceoff % (L5) +3.4%
New York: 53.2% vs Tampa Bay: 49.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYR Score 2.0 4
TB Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
73%MONEY27%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYR
TB
NYR
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
wsvn 4 hours, 4 minutes ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 10 hours, 7 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 16 hours, 7 minutes ago
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
si 1 day, 4 hours ago
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
si 1 day, 10 hours ago