Home / NHL Projections NHL / Stars @ Sabres DAL @ BUF

DALLAS

STARSDAL

49-20-12  |  Road

4
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 7:00 PM ET
KeyBank Center
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

50-23-8  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Jake Oettinger
GOALTENDER

Jake Oettinger

#29 | Goaltender
@
Colten Ellis
GOALTENDER

Colten Ellis

#92 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jake Oettinger None-None 2.77 0.875 --
Colten Ellis None-None 2.77 0.893 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.77 GAA 2.77
0.875 Save % Ldr 0.893
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
📊
SABRES
0%
STARS --
SABRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Buffalo)
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 SabresBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Sabres Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

DAL By 1 goal

12.1%

DAL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

BUF By 1 goal

19.7%

BUF By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
4
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sabres Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sabres Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Sabres (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 8, 2026 DAL @ BUF 4 - 0
Apr 15, 2026 DAL @ BUF 4 - 3
Dec 31, 2025 BUF @ DAL 4 - 1
Dec 31, 2024 BUF @ DAL 2 - 4
Oct 22, 2024 DAL @ BUF 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Buffalo: 19.2 vs Dallas: 15.0
Power Play % (L5) +24.7%
Buffalo: 26.3% vs Dallas: 1.6%
Takeaways (L5) +16.4% more
Buffalo: 5.6 vs Dallas: 4.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +24.4% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Buffalo: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 4
BUF Score 4.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
33%MONEY67%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
DAL
BUF
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List
si 1 day, 15 hours ago
Sharks Stunned: Celebrini Sidelined by Lower-Body Injury Moments…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Sharks' Celebrini Sidelined with Lower-Body Injury in Loss to St…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Maple Leafs' Accountability Moment: Hiller Benches Nylander, Ech…
yardbarker 4 days, 4 hours ago
Jiri Kulich's Emotional Game-Winner Lifts Sabres Over Blackhawks…
theathleticuk 4 days, 15 hours ago