Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Dodgers NYM @ LAD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

13-4  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Devin Williams None-None 6.75 -- 0.1 1
Tanner Scott None-None 1.04 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
6.75 ERA Ldr 1.04
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
0%
📊
DODGERS
100%
METS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

69.1%

Dodgers Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.4%

LAD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.705
OPS
▲ .762
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +30.3% more
New York: 3.9 vs Los Angeles: 2.7
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
New York: 0.6 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +10.6% more
New York: 9.6 vs Los Angeles: 8.6
Total Bases (L5) +48.4% more
Los Angeles: 11.4 vs New York: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 5.0 2
LAD Score 3.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 5.1 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.6 14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 7.7 26.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
NYM
LAD
NYM
ML
56% 92-73
50% 79-80
48% 79-87
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-66
43% 72-94
49% 78-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 80-66-13
44% 70-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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