Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Reds SF @ CIN

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

6-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

10-7  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
@
Pierce Johnson
STARTING PITCHER

Pierce Johnson

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
JT Brubaker None-None 2.61 -- 2.0 2
Pierce Johnson None-None 3.68 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.61 Ldr ERA 3.68
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
📊
REDS
100%
GIANTS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Francisco)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

69.1%

Reds Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7
SAN FRANCISCO
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 CIN @ SF 10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026 CIN @ SF 1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026 CIN @ SF 0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026 SF @ CIN 3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.13 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.306 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.706 ▲
OPS
.699
178
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +36.3% more
San Francisco: 8.5 vs Cincinnati: 5.4
Hits (L5) +34.2% more
San Francisco: 8.4 vs Cincinnati: 5.5
Total Bases (L5) +21.9% more
San Francisco: 13.0 vs Cincinnati: 10.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.6%
San Francisco: 24.5% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 7.0 3
CIN Score 5.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.5 / 8.4 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.8 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 8.5 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 10.1 / 13.0 22.0 / 11.0
Walks 5.2 / 4.6 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SF
CIN
SF
ML
55% 88-71
49% 79-81
49% 79-81
53% 85-75
ATS
54% 86-73
62% 100-60
50% 80-80
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 81-73-5
55% 82-68-10
54% 83-72-5
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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