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CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 1:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-85  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Festa None-None 7.00 -- 2.1 3
Riley O'Brien None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
7.00 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
GUARDIANS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 15, 2026 CLE @ STL 3 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 CLE @ STL 5 - 6
Apr 13, 2026 CLE @ STL 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2025 STL @ CLE 7 - 0
Jun 28, 2025 STL @ CLE 9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.380 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.696 ▲
OPS
.691
162
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +15.6% more
St. Louis: 1.8 vs Cleveland: 1.5
Walks (L5) +11.6% more
St. Louis: 3.6 vs Cleveland: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season) +6.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (Season) +3.1% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.0 3
STL Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.2 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 7.5 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 16.2 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.2 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CLE
STL
CLE
ML
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
49% 80-82
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 93-68
53% 85-76
59% 95-67
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 88-71-2
50% 76-75-10
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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