Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Padres SEA @ SD

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

8-10  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Apr 15 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

11-6  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jose Ferrer
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Ferrer

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jose Ferrer None-None 2.57 -- -- --
Wandy Peralta None-None 2.16 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.57 ERA Ldr 2.16
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
MARINERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

40.1%

Padres Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SEATTLE
7
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
6
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 17, 2026 SD @ SEA 8 - 3
May 16, 2026 SD @ SEA 7 - 4
May 15, 2026 SD @ SEA 2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026 SEA @ SD 2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 SEA @ SD 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.693
OPS
▲ .925
182 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +65.0% more
San Diego: 1.4 vs Seattle: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +54.1% more
San Diego: 9.1 vs Seattle: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +51.9% more
San Diego: 16.3 vs Seattle: 10.8
Walks (L5) +47.5% more
San Diego: 2.7 vs Seattle: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 6.0 6
SD Score 7.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.3 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 5.9 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.3 / 10.8 17.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.8 7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51% 85-83
50% 81-81
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 98-64
55% 92-75
59% 95-67
TTL
51% 82-80-6
56% 85-67-10
54% 86-74-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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