Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Dodgers NYM @ LAD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Apr 14 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

10-3  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Alex Vesia
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Vesia

#51 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nolan McLean None-None 2.28 -- 7.0 8
Alex Vesia None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
2.28 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
8 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
100%
📊
DODGERS
0%
METS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Los Angeles)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
NEW YORK
4
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 LAD @ NYM 3 - 8
Jul 25, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 3
Jul 24, 2026 LAD @ NYM 4 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 NYM @ LAD 2 - 8
Apr 14, 2026 NYM @ LAD 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.705
OPS
▲ .762
204
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +100.5% more
Los Angeles: 15.2 vs New York: 7.6
Home Runs (L5) +97.0% more
Los Angeles: 1.5 vs New York: 0.6
Hits (L5) +56.6% more
Los Angeles: 8.7 vs New York: 5.6
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.5 vs New York: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.0 1
LAD Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 5.6 3.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.4 / 9.9 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 7.6 4.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.8 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
NYM
LAD
NYM
ML
56% 92-73
50% 79-80
48% 79-87
48% 76-83
ATS
59% 98-67
58% 93-66
43% 72-94
49% 78-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
55% 80-66-13
44% 70-90-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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