SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
5-9 | Road
1
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
8-6 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Woo
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Woo | None-None | 2.16 | -- | 7.0 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.16
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
100%
PADRES
0%
MARINERS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SEA By 1-2 runs
7.8%
SEA By 3-4 runs
3.5%
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
2
SEATTLE
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Seattle
3
SEATTLE
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.693
OPS
▲
.925
182
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+85.3% more
San Diego: 2.2
vs
Seattle: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.0% more
San Diego: 10.2
vs
Seattle: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+46.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Seattle: 4.1
Total Bases (L5)
+23.7% more
San Diego: 17.5
vs
Seattle: 14.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
2.0
1
SD Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.0
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.2 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 6.9
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 14.2
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.3
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SEA
SD
SEA
ML
51%
85-83
50%
81-81
51%
85-82
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
98-64
55%
92-75
59%
95-67
TTL
51%
82-80-6
56%
85-67-10
54%
86-74-6
53%
81-71-10
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint