WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
5-8 | Road
5
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
8-5 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Montgomery
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.24 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Mason Montgomery | None-None | 6.14 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.24 Ldr
ERA
6.14
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
PIRATES
0%
NATIONALS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
WSH By 1-2 runs
7.8%
WSH By 3-4 runs
3.5%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
9
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 5, 2026
PIT @ WSH
11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026
PIT @ WSH
7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026
PIT @ WSH
5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026
WSH @ PIT
8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026
WSH @ PIT
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.744
▲
OPS
.734
210
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+31.6% more
Pittsburgh: 1.5
vs
Washington: 1.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.5% more
Pittsburgh: 9.1
vs
Washington: 7.5
Total Bases (L5)
+16.4% more
Pittsburgh: 16.8
vs
Washington: 14.4
Hits (L5)
+15.4% more
Pittsburgh: 10.6
vs
Washington: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.0
5
PIT Score
9.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
10.6 / 9.2
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.5
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 14.4
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.5 / 5.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
52%
82-77
57%
92-69
52%
85-78
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-68
50%
81-82
57%
91-70
TTL
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-78-6
50%
79-78-6
42%
65-90-6
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