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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

6-7  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Apr 14 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

5-9  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Hudson
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Hudson

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Baker None-None 4.26 -- 0.1 --
Bryan Hudson None-None 2.70 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.26 ERA Ldr 2.70
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
0%
📊
WHITE SOX
100%
RAYS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

69.1%

White Sox Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
TAMPA BAY
2
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim White Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 CHW @ TB 9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 CHW @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 CHW @ TB 6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026 TB @ CHW 5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026 TB @ CHW 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.728
OPS
▲ .826
169 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Hits (L5) +41.2% more
Tampa Bay: 9.0 vs Chicago: 5.3
Total Bases (L5) +26.2% more
Tampa Bay: 12.4 vs Chicago: 9.1
Errors (L5) +15.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.0 8
CHW Score 2.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.3 / 9.0 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.7 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 9.1 / 12.4 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.6 6.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TB
CHW
TB
ML
49% 81-86
58% 95-68
56% 94-73
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 99-68
60% 97-66
56% 93-74
55% 90-73
TTL
58% 96-69-2
47% 73-81-9
51% 84-81-2
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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