SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
6-8 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
8-6 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Keaton Winn
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Winn | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 4.82 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.68 Ldr
ERA
4.82
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
0%
REDS
100%
GIANTS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
SF By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SF By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Giants
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
CIN @ SF
10 - 9
Aug 25, 2026
CIN @ SF
1 - 3
Aug 24, 2026
CIN @ SF
0 - 5
Apr 16, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 0
Apr 15, 2026
SF @ CIN
3 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.13
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.306
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.706
▲
OPS
.699
178
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.8% more
San Francisco: 8.2
vs
Cincinnati: 5.6
Hits (L5)
+25.4% more
San Francisco: 9.1
vs
Cincinnati: 6.8
Total Bases (L5)
+23.4% more
San Francisco: 13.9
vs
Cincinnati: 10.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
San Francisco: 24.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
4.0
1
CIN Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.1
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 8.2
5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 13.9
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
7.4 / 4.4
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SF
CIN
SF
ML
55%
88-71
49%
79-81
49%
79-81
53%
85-75
ATS
54%
86-73
62%
100-60
50%
80-80
52%
83-77
TTL
53%
81-73-5
55%
82-68-10
54%
83-72-5
46%
68-81-11
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