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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

1-0  |  Road

114
FINAL
Tue, Apr 14 • 10:00 PM ET
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PHOENIX

SUNSPHX

44-37  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
SUNS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
SUNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 SunsPHX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

84.1%

Suns Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

23.0%

POR By 8-14 points

27.2%

PHX By 1-7 points

10.7%

PHX By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
115
PORTLAND
105
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
106
PORTLAND
121
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Suns Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Suns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o216.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Sim u216.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 14, 2026 POR @ PHX 114 - 110
Feb 22, 2026 POR @ PHX 92 - 77
Feb 3, 2026 PHX @ POR 130 - 125
Nov 18, 2025 PHX @ POR 127 - 110
Feb 3, 2025 PHX @ POR 119 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.6% more
Portland: 9.6 vs Phoenix: 6.9
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Portland: 26.1 vs Phoenix: 22.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Portland: 77.1% vs Phoenix: 66.5%
Blocks (L5) +10.9% more
Phoenix: 5.7 vs Portland: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 115.0 114
PHX Score 105.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 35.1 36.0 / 36.0
Assists 22.5 / 26.1 20.0 / 27.0
Blocks 5.7 / 5.1 6.0 / 10.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 46.2 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 77.1 72.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 46.6 / 45.1 38.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.6 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 14.9 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
PHX Advantage
50-38-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
POR
PHX
POR
ML
57% 60-45
53% 56-49
51% 45-43
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 59-43-3
62% 65-39-1
51% 45-43
55% 49-40
TTL
59% 61-42-2
56% 58-46-1
100% 88-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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