MIAMI
HEATMIA
1-0 | Road
126
CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
0-1 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
100%
HORNETS
0%
HEAT
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CHA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
MIA By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
9.3%
CHA By 1-7 points
27.4%
CHA By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
113
MIAMI
Charlotte
117
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
Miami
102
MIAMI
Charlotte
115
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o228.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u228.0
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 14, 2026
MIA @ CHA
126 - 127
Mar 17, 2026
MIA @ CHA
106 - 136
Mar 6, 2026
MIA @ CHA
128 - 120
Nov 7, 2025
CHA @ MIA
108 - 126
Oct 28, 2025
CHA @ MIA
117 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.7% more
Charlotte: 5.3
vs
Miami: 3.2
Turnovers (L5)
+22.0% more
Charlotte: 15.4
vs
Miami: 12.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.4%
Charlotte: 80.6%
vs
Miami: 75.2%
Assists (L5)
+27.0% more
Miami: 33.6
vs
Charlotte: 24.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
113.0
126
CHA Score
117.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 42.2
32.0 / 39.0
Assists
24.6 / 33.6
26.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.3 / 3.2
7.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
44.7 / 53.7
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
80.6 / 75.2
100.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
44.2 / 42.3
54.0 / 48.0
Steals
7.4 / 7.1
4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.4 / 12.6
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
MIA
CHA
MIA
ML
61%
60-39
48%
46-50
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
ATS
60%
59-40
51%
49-47
48%
40-44
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
57-42
59%
57-39
100%
84-0
100%
82-0
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