CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
8-6 | Road
9
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
8-5 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 5.63 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.63
ERA
Ldr 1.08
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
GUARDIANS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
STL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
CLE @ STL
3 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
CLE @ STL
5 - 6
Apr 13, 2026
CLE @ STL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2025
STL @ CLE
7 - 0
Jun 28, 2025
STL @ CLE
9 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.696
▲
OPS
.691
162
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.4% more
Cleveland: 8.0
vs
St. Louis: 5.5
Total Bases (L5)
+18.6% more
Cleveland: 13.8
vs
St. Louis: 11.3
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
St. Louis: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.0
9
STL Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.4
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 8.0
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 13.8
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.9
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CLE
STL
CLE
ML
53%
85-74
54%
87-74
52%
84-77
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-68
53%
85-76
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
68-81-10
55%
88-71-2
50%
76-75-10
43%
69-90-2
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