HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
6-8 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
5-9 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mike Burrows
#50 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Wilcox
#43 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Burrows | None-None | 6.55 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
| Cole Wilcox | None-None | 4.76 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.55
ERA
Ldr 4.76
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
0%
MARINERS
100%
ASTROS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.4%
SEA By 1-2 runs
13.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Seattle
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
HOU @ SEA
5 - 6
Sep 22, 2026
HOU @ SEA
7 - 0
Aug 16, 2026
SEA @ HOU
3 - 2
Aug 15, 2026
SEA @ HOU
10 - 5
Aug 14, 2026
SEA @ HOU
7 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.379
.582
OPS
▲
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+69.4% more
Houston: 7.8
vs
Seattle: 2.4
Total Bases (L5)
+25.9% more
Houston: 14.5
vs
Seattle: 10.7
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
Houston: 1.0
vs
Seattle: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+24.5% more
Houston: 9.2
vs
Seattle: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
6.0
2
SEA Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 9.2
13.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.8
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 14.5
21.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.4 / 7.8
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
HOU
SEA
HOU
ML
50%
81-81
50%
81-82
52%
85-77
47%
77-87
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
91-72
59%
95-67
55%
90-74
TTL
56%
85-67-10
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-71-10
45%
69-86-9
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