BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
4-9 | Road
6
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
7-7 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jovani Moran
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovani Moran | None-None | 1.74 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 5.49 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.74 Ldr
ERA
5.49
--
WHIP
--
2.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
TWINS
100%
RED SOX
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 24, 2026
MIN @ BOS
6 - 5
May 23, 2026
MIN @ BOS
4 - 2
May 22, 2026
MIN @ BOS
8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026
BOS @ MIN
9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
BOS @ MIN
0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Minnesota
MIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.409
OPS
▲
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Boston: 0.5
vs
Minnesota: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+14.7% more
Boston: 9.0
vs
Minnesota: 7.7
Walks (L5)
+8.1% more
Boston: 3.4
vs
Minnesota: 3.1
Home Runs (Season)
+9250.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.0
6
MIN Score
3.0
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 9.0
11.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.4
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 6.8
10.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.8
26.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.4
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BOS
MIN
BOS
ML
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
80-81
47%
76-87
ATS
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
TTL
51%
78-75-9
46%
72-83-5
53%
80-72-9
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
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