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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

5-8  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Apr 13 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

8-5  |  Home

16
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Paul Skenes
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Skenes

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Paul Skenes None-None 4.00 -- 6.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
📊
PIRATES
0%
NATIONALS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Pittsburgh)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

15.9%

Pirates Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

WSH By 1-2 runs

7.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

3.5%

PIT By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
7
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pirates (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Pirates (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 5, 2026 PIT @ WSH 11 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 PIT @ WSH 7 - 1
Jul 3, 2026 PIT @ WSH 5 - 9
Apr 16, 2026 WSH @ PIT 8 - 7
Apr 15, 2026 WSH @ PIT 0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.744 ▲
OPS
.734
210 ▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +55.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.7
Errors (L5) +52.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +36.0% more
Pittsburgh: 9.2 vs Washington: 6.7
Walks (L5) +19.7% more
Pittsburgh: 5.7 vs Washington: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 5
PIT Score 7.0 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 9.8 16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 6.7 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 14.2 25.0 / 15.0
Walks 5.7 / 4.8 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
WSH
PIT
WSH
ML
52% 82-77
57% 92-69
52% 85-78
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 81-82
57% 91-70
TTL
47% 72-81-6
50% 77-78-6
50% 79-78-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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