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DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

41-29-9  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Apr 13 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

48-25-6  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Moritz Seider
GOALTENDER

Moritz Seider

#53 | Defense
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Moritz Seider None-None -- -- --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 2.98 0.900 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.98
-- Save % 0.900
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
RED WINGS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Red WingsDET (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Wings Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

DET By 1 goal

12.1%

DET By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
DETROIT
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
DETROIT
3
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 13, 2026 DET @ TB 3 - 4
Mar 12, 2026 DET @ TB 1 - 4
Nov 28, 2025 TB @ DET 6 - 3
Oct 17, 2025 TB @ DET 1 - 2
Apr 11, 2025 DET @ TB 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +39.1% more
Tampa Bay: 5.6 vs Detroit: 4.0
Shots on Goal (L5) +32.2% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Detroit: 25.1
Hits (L5) +15.7% more
Tampa Bay: 24.3 vs Detroit: 21.0
Faceoff % (L5) +8.9%
Tampa Bay: 49.8% vs Detroit: 41.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 2.0 3
TB Score 3.0 4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
22%MONEY78%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
100% 4-0
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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