PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
8-5 | Road
6
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
6-7 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Barco
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ethan Roberts
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Barco | None-None | 6.43 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Ethan Roberts | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.43
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
CUBS
0%
PIRATES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u12.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u12.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.734
▲
OPS
.374
186
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Chicago: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+89.4% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+36.0%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.0
6
CHC Score
3.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.3
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 0.4
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 10.2
15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 11.1
19.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.5 / 5.1
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PIT
CHC
PIT
ML
58%
93-68
52%
82-77
51%
82-79
52%
85-78
ATS
61%
97-63-1
54%
86-73
47%
75-85-1
50%
81-82
TTL
52%
81-74-6
47%
72-81-6
46%
72-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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