MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
7-7 | Road
8
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
6-7 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeff Hoffman
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
0%
BLUE JAYS
100%
TWINS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
16.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ MIN
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
TOR @ MIN
11 - 4
May 1, 2026
TOR @ MIN
7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026
TOR @ MIN
1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026
MIN @ TOR
8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
187
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+18.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Home Runs (L5)
+13.7% more
Minnesota: 1.4
vs
Toronto: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.3% more
Minnesota: 4.6
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+2.8%
Minnesota: 72.0%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.0
8
TOR Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.5
12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 6.4
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 12.5
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.7 / 2.6
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
46%
74-87
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
59%
95-66
TTL
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-9
45%
70-85-5
53%
80-72-9
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