BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
4-9 | Road
9
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
8-5 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brayan Bello
#66 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
George Soriano
#65 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello | None-None | 6.14 | -- | 6.2 | 2 |
| George Soriano | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.14
ERA
Ldr 2.57
--
WHIP
--
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
CARDINALS
0%
RED SOX
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
BOS @ STL
9 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
BOS @ STL
7 - 1
Apr 10, 2026
BOS @ STL
2 - 3
Apr 6, 2025
STL @ BOS
7 - 18
Apr 4, 2025
STL @ BOS
9 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
St. Louis
STL
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.378
.409
OPS
▲
.691
2
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8250.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+344.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+72.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9
vs
Boston: 0.2
OPS (Season)
+28.2%
St. Louis: 69.1%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
9
STL Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 7.5
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.2
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 9.2
13.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
BOS
STL
BOS
ML
53%
85-74
50%
80-80
52%
84-77
47%
76-87
ATS
56%
89-70
58%
93-67
53%
85-76
48%
79-84
TTL
46%
68-81-10
46%
72-83-5
50%
76-75-10
47%
74-83-6
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