WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
5-8 | Road
8
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
8-5 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Littell
#18 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | None-None | 4.20 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 3.55 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.20
ERA
Ldr 3.55
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
100%
BREWERS
0%
NATIONALS
--
BREWERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
MIL @ WSH
2 - 3
May 2, 2026
MIL @ WSH
4 - 1
May 1, 2026
MIL @ WSH
6 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
WSH @ MIL
8 - 6
Apr 11, 2026
WSH @ MIL
3 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
5.07
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.744
▲
OPS
.743
210
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+78.0% more
Milwaukee: 1.3
vs
Washington: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+13.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.7
vs
Washington: 0.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.0%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Runs per Game (Season)
+1.4% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.0
8
MIL Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.5
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
4.6 / 8.6
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 7.6
7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
7.5 / 12.7
21.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.5 / 6.1
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
WSH
MIL
WSH
ML
62%
101-61
57%
92-69
52%
84-78
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
94-68
58%
93-68
48%
78-84
57%
91-70
TTL
40%
62-92-8
50%
77-78-6
50%
77-77-8
42%
65-90-6
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