Home / MLB Projections MLB / Athletics @ Mets ATH @ NYM

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

6-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

7-7  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 6.14 -- 0.1 --
Sean Manaea None-None 2.25 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
6.14 ERA Ldr 2.25
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
0%
📊
METS
100%
ATHLETICS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

69.1%

Mets Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

18.4%

NYM By 1-2 runs

13.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
ATHLETICS
2
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 ATH @ NYM 1 - 0
Apr 11, 2026 ATH @ NYM 11 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 ATH @ NYM 4 - 0
Apr 13, 2025 NYM @ ATH 8 - 0
Apr 12, 2025 NYM @ ATH 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
4.31
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.719 ▲
OPS
.705
194
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +23.1% more
Athletics: 10.8 vs New York: 8.3
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
Athletics: 16.2 vs New York: 12.8
Walks (L5) +16.9% more
Athletics: 4.1 vs New York: 3.4
Strikeouts (L5) +14.5% more
Athletics: 9.8 vs New York: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 4.0 1
NYM Score 2.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.8 4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.8 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.8 / 16.2 4.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ATH
NYM
ATH
ML
50% 79-80
59% 95-67
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
52% 84-78
49% 78-81
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 80-66-13
54% 84-73-5
51% 74-72-13
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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