Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Reds LAA @ CIN

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

7-7  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 1:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

8-6  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Bachman None-None 4.91 -- 0.2 1
Sam Moll None-None 2.08 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 2.08
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
0%
📊
REDS
100%
ANGELS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAA By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
LOS ANGELES
2
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 LAA @ CIN 9 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 LAA @ CIN 3 - 7
Apr 10, 2026 LAA @ CIN 10 - 2
Aug 20, 2025 CIN @ LAA 1 - 2
Aug 19, 2025 CIN @ LAA 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.11
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.679
OPS
▲ .699
154
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +17.3% more
Los Angeles: 1.1 vs Cincinnati: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +8.9% more
Los Angeles: 7.6 vs Cincinnati: 6.9
Batting Avg (Season) +0.5%
Los Angeles: 23.4% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.5%
Los Angeles: 31.0% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.0 9
CIN Score 2.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 3.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.2 / 6.8 6.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 7.6 3.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 11.9 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 6.5 / 6.1 9.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
24%MONEY76%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LAA
CIN
LAA
ML
55% 88-71
59% 96-66
49% 79-81
55% 89-73
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 97-65
50% 80-80
51% 82-80
TTL
53% 81-73-5
53% 83-74-5
54% 83-72-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 3 hours, 59 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 9 hours, 49 minutes ago