MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
25-56 | Road
101
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
51-30 | Home
132
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
ROCKETS
0%
GRIZZLIES
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
MEM By 1-7 points
10.7%
MEM By 8-14 points
3.3%
HOU By 1-7 points
23.0%
HOU By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Memphis
113
MEMPHIS
Houston
123
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Memphis
108
MEMPHIS
Houston
120
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o231.5
Win
Proj Total: 236.0
D
Sim
u231.5
Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MEM @ HOU
101 - 132
Mar 27, 2026
HOU @ MEM
119 - 109
Jan 26, 2026
MEM @ HOU
99 - 108
Nov 5, 2025
HOU @ MEM
124 - 109
Jan 30, 2025
HOU @ MEM
119 - 120
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+123.6% more
Houston: 5.1
vs
Memphis: 2.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.6% more
Houston: 45.8
vs
Memphis: 38.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+9.5%
Houston: 52.5%
vs
Memphis: 43.0%
Steals (L5)
+18.0% more
Memphis: 8.5
vs
Houston: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MEM Score
113.0
101
HOU Score
123.0
132
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.9 / 33.0
29.0 / 27.0
Assists
27.2 / 26.0
23.0 / 23.0
Blocks
5.1 / 2.3
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
52.5 / 43.0
46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
79.6 / 78.6
73.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
45.8 / 38.9
64.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.9 / 8.5
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.0 / 14.7
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MEM
HOU
MEM
ML
61%
69-44
57%
59-44
59%
51-35
50%
41-41
ATS
62%
70-43
63%
65-38
59%
51-35
50%
41-41
TTL
51%
58-55
70%
71-31-1
100%
86-0
100%
82-0
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