CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
31-50 | Road
128
DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
25-56 | Home
149
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
0%
MAVERICKS
100%
BULLS
--
MAVERICKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAL +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)
CHI By 1-7 points
27.2%
CHI By 8-14 points
20.1%
DAL By 1-7 points
21.6%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
118
CHICAGO
Dallas
115
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Chicago
110
CHICAGO
Dallas
122
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bulls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mavericks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Mavericks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u249.5
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u249.5
Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
CHI @ DAL
128 - 149
Jan 10, 2026
DAL @ CHI
107 - 125
Mar 29, 2025
DAL @ CHI
120 - 119
Nov 6, 2024
CHI @ DAL
99 - 119
Mar 11, 2024
DAL @ CHI
127 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.5% more
Chicago: 17.3
vs
Dallas: 9.8
Steals (L5)
+26.9% more
Chicago: 10.2
vs
Dallas: 7.5
Rebounding (L5)
+9.0% more
Chicago: 45.8
vs
Dallas: 41.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Chicago: 45.7%
vs
Dallas: 43.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
118.0
128
DAL Score
115.0
149
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 29.1
45.0 / 26.0
Assists
24.7 / 26.8
35.0 / 30.0
Blocks
5.5 / 4.7
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 45.7
52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
83.6 / 76.3
85.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
41.7 / 45.8
57.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.5 / 10.2
10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 17.3
18.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
Advantage
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
CHI
DAL
CHI
ML
62%
63-39
56%
54-42
54%
44-37
57%
46-35
ATS
67%
68-34
65%
62-33-1
54%
44-37
57%
46-35
TTL
59%
60-41-1
58%
56-40
100%
81-0
100%
81-0
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