UTAH
JAZZUTAH
22-59 | Road
107
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
52-29 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
LAKERS
100%
JAZZ
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
UTAH By 1-7 points
13.7%
UTAH By 8-14 points
24.3%
LAL By 1-7 points
4.0%
LAL By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
129
UTAH
Los Angeles
113
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Utah
108
UTAH
Los Angeles
115
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jazz
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jazz (-14.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o238.5
Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim
u238.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
UTAH @ LAL
107 - 131
Dec 18, 2025
LAL @ UTAH
143 - 135
Nov 23, 2025
LAL @ UTAH
108 - 106
Nov 18, 2025
UTAH @ LAL
126 - 140
Feb 12, 2025
LAL @ UTAH
119 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+24.3% more
Utah: 49.6
vs
Los Angeles: 37.5
Assists (L5)
+17.3% more
Utah: 35.5
vs
Los Angeles: 29.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Los Angeles: 40.1%
vs
Utah: 35.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.4%
Los Angeles: 70.0%
vs
Utah: 66.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
129.0
107
LAL Score
113.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 35.8
44.0 / 21.0
Assists
29.3 / 35.5
37.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.6
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.1 / 50.2
55.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
70.0 / 66.5
82.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 49.6
49.0 / 42.0
Steals
12.1 / 12.0
12.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 15.2
17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
LAL
Advantage
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
UTAH
LAL
UTAH
ML
61%
68-43
60%
96-63
54%
49-42
48%
40-43
ATS
61%
67-43-1
68%
108-51
54%
49-42
48%
40-43
TTL
61%
66-43-2
75%
119-39-1
100%
91-0
100%
83-0
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