Home / NHL Projections NHL / Canadiens @ Islanders MTL @ NYI

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

47-22-10  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 6:00 PM ET
UBS Arena
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

ISLANDERSNYI

43-31-5  |  Home

1
Goaltending
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | G
@
Ilya Sorokin
GOALTENDER

Ilya Sorokin

#30 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Jacob Fowler None-None 1.00 0.970 --
Ilya Sorokin None-None 4.21 0.818 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.00 Ldr GAA 4.21
0.970 Ldr Save % 0.818
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
CANADIENS
100%
📊
ISLANDERS
0%
CANADIENS --
ISLANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
CanadiensMTL (-3.5) 0 IslandersNYI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Canadiens Cover

30.9%

Islanders Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)

MTL By 1 goal

12.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

9.3%

NYI By 1 goal

19.7%

NYI By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MONTREAL
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
2
MONTREAL
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Islanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Islanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Islanders (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Islanders (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MTL @ NYI 4 - 1
Mar 21, 2026 NYI @ MTL 3 - 7
Feb 26, 2026 NYI @ MTL 4 - 3
Mar 20, 2025 MTL @ NYI 3 - 4
Dec 3, 2024 NYI @ MTL 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +21.4% more
New York: 4.4 vs Montreal: 3.6
Faceoff % (L5) +5.0%
New York: 57.9% vs Montreal: 52.9%
Blocked Shots (L5) +37.3% more
Montreal: 19.6 vs New York: 12.3
Shots on Goal (L5) +24.7% more
Montreal: 29.7 vs New York: 22.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTL Score 3.0 4
NYI Score 4.0 1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
43%MONEY57%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
MTL
NYI
MTL
ML
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
ATS
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
100% 3-0
TTL
100% 2-0-1
33% 1-2
100% 2-0-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
yardbarker 6 hours, 6 minutes ago
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
si 6 hours, 8 minutes ago
Canadiens Accused of Showcasing Kirby Dach as Trade Rumors Swirl
yardbarker 6 hours, 18 minutes ago
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
si 12 hours, 8 minutes ago
Canadiens Call Up Jacob Fowler After Samuel Montembeault Injury …
yardbarker 1 day ago