DETROIT
PISTONSDET
59-22 | Road
133
INDIANA
PACERSIND
19-62 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
PACERS
100%
PISTONS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
DET By 1-7 points
24.3%
DET By 8-14 points
26.8%
IND By 1-7 points
12.2%
IND By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Indiana
113
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Detroit
120
DETROIT
Indiana
110
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o230.5
Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
DET @ IND
133 - 121
Jan 17, 2026
IND @ DET
78 - 121
Nov 24, 2025
DET @ IND
122 - 117
Nov 17, 2025
IND @ DET
112 - 127
Jan 29, 2025
DET @ IND
119 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.7% more
Detroit: 7.6
vs
Indiana: 4.7
Steals (L5)
+38.3% more
Detroit: 10.7
vs
Indiana: 6.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Detroit: 51.8%
vs
Indiana: 45.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Detroit: 38.9%
vs
Indiana: 32.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
122.0
133
IND Score
113.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 38.9
43.0 / 45.0
Assists
31.3 / 32.2
31.0 / 35.0
Blocks
4.7 / 7.6
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 51.8
46.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
81.5 / 76.9
80.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
49.5 / 44.9
31.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.6 / 10.7
15.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 15.3
16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DET
IND
DET
ML
48%
47-50
55%
64-53
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
ATS
59%
57-40
53%
60-54-3
54%
45-38
49%
47-49
TTL
54%
52-45
60%
70-46-1
100%
83-0
100%
96-0
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