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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

41-22-16  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Apr 12 • 3:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

40-30-9  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Trevor van Riemsdyk
GOALTENDER

Trevor van Riemsdyk

#57 | Defense
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Trevor van Riemsdyk None-None -- -- --
Logan Thompson None-None 0.00 1.000 1
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 0.00
-- Save % 1.000
-- SO 1
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
0%
📊
CAPITALS
100%
PENGUINS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

84.1%

Capitals Cover

15.9%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

17.5%

PIT By 2-3 goals

37.2%

WSH By 1 goal

6.6%

WSH By 2-3 goals

3.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PITTSBURGH
3
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
PITTSBURGH
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Penguins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Penguins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 PIT @ WSH 3 - 5
Apr 12, 2026 PIT @ WSH 0 - 3
Apr 11, 2026 WSH @ PIT 6 - 3
Nov 6, 2025 WSH @ PIT 3 - 5
Apr 17, 2025 WSH @ PIT 2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +50.5% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Hits (L5) +27.9% more
Washington: 18.4 vs Pittsburgh: 14.4
Takeaways (L5) +27.1% more
Washington: 5.2 vs Pittsburgh: 4.1
Power Play % (L5) +11.4%
Washington: 13.9% vs Pittsburgh: 2.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 5.0 0
WSH Score 3.0 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
59%MONEY41%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
ATS
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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